Thomas Gadd

Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East: an Analysis of Future Events Thomas Gadd

Conflict in the Middle East: What Drives It?Where will it end? This study will provide the reader a significant understanding of the historic and current issues that drive the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and the potential for these factors to escalate into a nuclear conflict. The historic background provides an overview of the religious and regional issues that are the base cause for the animosity and aggression between these nations. The nuclear development, intent, and international posture are also reviewed. Concentrating on these main factors, the Lockwood method of numerical analysis is used to predict the most likely future events that could result in a nuclear conflict during the period of 2005 to 2020. This study concentrates on Iran, Iraq and Israel - the three main players in the future stability of the Middle East. An extensive bibliography is included for the reader who wishes further information on Middle East nuclear developments.