Isabelle Francois

The United States, Russia, Europe, and Security: How to Address the Unfinished Business of the Post-cold War Era: Transatlantic Perspectives, No. 2 Isabelle Francois

Publisher Marketing: In 2012, the U. S. Department of Defense published Sustaining U. S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense. In this strategy document, the Defense Department outlines the new focus of U. S. efforts on threats emanating primarily from South Asia and the Middle East, spelling out the U. S. commitment to address them by working with allies and partners, acknowledging Europe as the "home to some of America's most stalwart allies and partners." It clearly states that the United States "has enduring interests in supporting peace and prosperity in Europe as well as bolstering the strength and vitality of NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization], which is critical to the security of Europe and beyond." In addition, the United States will be hosting the next NATO summit in Chicago on May 20-21, 2012. This will be an opportunity to send a strong message of Alliance solidarity in the face of budgetary restraints and will provide a concrete commitment to "smart defense" through pooling and sharing limited resources. The NATO summit might also provide an opportunity to consider what this means for NATO-Russia cooperation in an age of austerity. Immediately following Russian elections, there may be a case for reviewing the state of play between NATO and Russia, should the new Russian president seize the opportunity to refine his approach toward security cooperation with the West. This paper, completed in February 2012, provides concrete ideas for the United States, Russia, and Europe to take account of the 2012 agenda, and refine their relationships toward the goal of partnership and the ultimate emergence of an inclusive European security community. The paper first provides an honest assessment of the NATO-Russia cooperation of the past 20 years and concludes that this relationship has yet to deliver a truly "strategic partnership" in line with the current rhetoric, many documents, and political declarations. It attempts to shed light on the Russian outlook and reviews the limits of the current partnership. It points to a significant level of "unfinished business" from the post-Cold War, which will have to be addressed if there is any hope of building a whole Europe that is free, undivided, and at peace. The second part reviews the current challenges facing NATO Allies and Russia in three main areas: the reduction of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Europe, stalemate regarding conventional forces in Europe, and limits of cooperation in missile defense. In reviewing the debate in these three areas, the paper offers options to move forward in each case but, in all three areas, concludes with the need for a broad political-military dialogue, reaching beyond the confines of the NATO-Russia relationship to broadly address Russian concerns. In each area, the paper points to fundamental disagreements that reach well beyond the issue at hand to a basic difference of views on the European security construct and on threat perceptions that ultimately reflect a fundamental lack of trust, paralyzing the strategic community. The third and last part of the paper spells out a confidence-building program to reassure Russia regarding Western intentions and to develop trust through operational cooperation, transparency in contingency planning and exercising, dialogue about deterrence and transparency on safety measures regarding tactical nuclear weapons, smart defense approaches and projects, and possible joint installations and co-ownership as cooperation develops. In conclusion, the paper argues for renewed bilateral and multilateral efforts toward a strategic partnership with Russia. It stresses, however, the requirement for a "confidence-building detour" on the road to an inclusive European security community. Contributor Bio:  University, National Defense Alexander Woodcock is currently Principal Operations Research Analyst at MITRE Corporation, a consultant to the National Defense University, and an Affiliate Professor at the School of Public Policy, George Mason University. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine, a foreign member of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences, and a full member of Sigma Xi. He was a consultant to the Institute for Defense Analyses, the Naval Research Laboratory, and the intelligence community. He was also a Senior Research Professor and Director of the Societal Dynamics Research Center at the School of Public Policy, George Mason University. Dr. Woodcock was Chief Scientist, Vice President, and Director of the Advanced Mathematics Program, BAE SYSTEMS-Portal Solutions (formerly Synectics Corporation), a Guest Professor at the Swedish National Defence College, and a Visiting Professor at The Royal Military College of Science, England. He is the author of Assessing Iraq's Future, published by the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences and co-editor with John Dockery of The Military Landscape: Mathematical Models of Combat. Dr. Woodcock has a PhD in biology and an MSc in biophysics from the University of East Anglia, England, and a BSc with Honours in physics from Exeter University, England. Samuel Musa is a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) of the National Defense University. He has held the Homeland Security Science and Technology Chair at CTNSP. He was previously Associate Vice President for Strategic Initiatives and Professor of electrical and computer engineering at Northwestern University. He has served in various positions in academia, government, and industry, including University of Michigan, University of Pennsylvania, Institute for Defense Analysis, and Office of the Secretary of Defense. Dr. Musa served on the Defense Intelligence Advisory Board, Arm y Science Board, and Air Force Scientific Advisory Board. He was Executive Secretary of Defense Science Board Summer Studies and Task Forces, and a member of the Scientific and Technical Intelligence Committee of the Director of Central Intelligence. Dr. Musa received his BA and BS degrees in Electrical Engineering from Rutgers University, and MS and PhD degrees in Applied Physics from Harvard University.