Garabed Minassian

Breaking the Bulgarian Economic Model: Reasons and Projections Garabed Minassian

The first part of the monograph analyzes fundamental principles of the theoretical foundations of macroeconomic projections. The reader will pick up without difficulty ideas of the author which will sound slightly more different than the general chorus of adopted postulates. The second part examines the econometric tools. The author's idea is that these tools should be made as simple as possible and the emphasis should be on the subjective factor. A simulation model for medium-term projections was worked out in line with the methodological approach adopted. The third chapter assesses the dynamics of Bulgarian economy until the pre-crisis year 2008 and in the last chapter (chapter four) the macroeconomic policies during the economic crisis, breaking the Bulgarian economic model including. The key problems facing the development of Bulgarian economy in the short term are outlined too. The projections are more analytical than quantitative. The study has put an emphasis on Bulgarian economy, but the reader will manage to find out assessments valid for the economic development of countries comparable to Bulgaria, located on the outskirts of the EU.