Mengistu Kefale

Time Series Analysis on Price and Rainfall Pattern of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia: Rainfall Pattern and Its Long Impact on the Price of Commodities (Unrefined Butter) Mengistu Kefale

Time series analysis is one of the power ful statistical methods which helps in the identifying the phenomenon generated through time. To apply time series analysis on the given data the prerequisite is that the series must not be random. Timely generated data includes different areas like monthly sales,closing price on successive months or days, monthly rainfall patterns of a plac,temperature etc. The pattern of rainfall in a certain area can affect positively and negatively the price of somce commodities like unrefined butter depending on its amount and distribution. For example,when there is enogh amount of rainfall in a certain locality the grazing for cattles will be at good condition and at the same time the production of milk will also be high which bi implies the good supply of butter in the market. As the supply of a commodity is high its price gets to low and the vise versa. The focus of this book is to show that the impact of rainfall patterns on the orice of unrefined butter in given locality after some time and estimating the number of lags required for starting of the influence of one or more phenomena on the other.